Las bases sociales y políticas de la abstención en las elecciones generales españolas

Recursos individuales, movilización estratégica e instituciones electorales

Abstract

This research report examines the social and political factors that have determined the role
and variability of electoral absention in the Spanish general elections. Extending the models of a
psychological and sociological nature that have been used (with relative success) for explaining
Spanish abstention, this study demonstrates that the level of participation in the general elections
depends to a large extent on strictly political factors: overall satisfaction of the electorte
with the political situation of the country, the introduction of political parties and their power
of mobilization, the level of associationism and «social capital», the degree of electoral competitivity
in each geographical area and the strategic calculations that electors perform according to
the size of electoral constituencies and distorsions of representation imposed by electoral law.
The report uses individual data taken from the post-electoral surveys carried out by the CIS, and
uses non-linear multivariant regressions applied to samples collected on panel.