An Ecological Study of the Socialist Vote in Rural and Urban Areas in Andalusia, 1999-2011

Abstract

This article aims to strengthen electoral studies in Spain by expanding
their thematic and methodological scope. It offers an ecological study of
the vote. Specifically, it explores, from an aggregate approach, the
relationship between urbanization, electoral participation and support for
the Socialist Party from 1999 to 2012 in the region of Andalusia. Our
empirical analysis uses two approaches: the first provides a geography of
the vote, which is more descriptive than explanatory, and it shows that
both turnout and voting for the Socialist Party are negatively correlated
with urbanization in Andalusia; the second, through spatial regression
analyses, examines socio-structural factors and shows that the socialist
vote, particularly in national and regional elections, is correlated with the
economic instability and precariousness of municipalities - primarily levels
of unemployment and the proportion of the population receiving
agricultural subsidies.