Vote Recall and Analytical Distortions: the Spanish Case after the 2023 General Election

Abstract

The objective of this research is to analyze and identify patterns in the variables of vote recall and vote intention as recorded in the monthly barometers conducted by the Spanish Center for Sociological Research (CIS). The methodological approach employed is time series analysis. The empirical findings indicate that the average percentage of vote recall for the progressive parties, PSOE and Sumar, does not differ from their results in the most recent general elections. In contrast, the percentages for the PP and Vox are lower than their actual electoral outcomes. The study confirms the presence of vote concealment in the case of the PP, as well as the role of the concealment category as an intermediate state in vote transfers to and from Vox. Finally, the research highlights the importance of monitoring the electoral dynamics reflected in the vote recall variable and recommends assessing its potential use as a weighting variable.