Does Europe Matters in European Elections? An Explanatory Model of the 2009 European Parliament Elections

Abstract

This paper assesses the validity of different interpretative models of voting
behavior in European elections in the light of the June 2009 results.
First, we focus on models linking the European vote to national political
concerns (Second Order model) and the domestic electoral cycle
(Mid-Term model), and then we assess the capacity of a model based
on the role of party positions and campaigning (Europe matters model)
to explain occurrences which are at odds with traditional interpretations.
Finally, we present a composite model in order to provide a more solid
explanation of the 2009 European election results.