Immigrant Outflows in Contexts of Economic Decline. Does Self-selection Change during Periods of Recession?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.152.87Keywords:
Human Capital • Economic Crisis • Unemployment • Labour Market • Migration • Return, Human Capital, Economic Crisis, Unemployment, Labour Market, Migration, ReturnAbstract
This paper studies the outflows of the foreign-born population resident in
Spain; specifically, it examines the variations in the probability of
emigrating and the intensity of self-selection during the different phases
of the economic cycle. In order to do this, survival analysis models were
calculated using data from the Spanish Labour Force Survey between
2005 and 2010. The results show, on the one hand, an increase in the
probability of emigrating from the start of the recession; and on the other
hand, that the probability of emigrating is higher among immigrants with
worse employment outcomes and a poorer educational background, as
suggested by Neo-classical Economics. However, the effect of
unemployment and of the deficit in human capital has been decreasing
since 2008. That is, during the recession, negative self-selection is
reduced compared to the period of economic growth.
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