Online Electoral Polls: New Challenges, Old Problems

Abstract

The internet has brought about a genuine revolution which is opening
up exciting new research opportunities for social scientists. As a survey
tool it offers obvious advantages for electoral polling that deserve to be
explored. In connection with the 2010 Universitat de València chancellor
elections, an online scientifi c poll of an electoral process was conducted
for the fi rst time in Spain. The survey clearly showed the general trends
of the election and the order of the candidates in the race, infl uenced
the campaign strategies of candidates and made it possible to confi rm
two hypotheses that a priori we thought they would take place about the
behavior of electors: the effects of gender and faculty. However, despite
attempts to adjust estimates, post-stratifi cation and calibration techniques
were unable to correct non-response bias adequately: the forecasts
systematically underestimate the winning candidate outcomes.