Turnout and electoral results in Spain

Abstract

This paper critically reviews the conventional wisdom
on the positive relationship between turnout and the
electoral results of the PSOE in general elections in
Spain. We highlight the existence of three causal
mechanisms that give rise to different predictions
about this correlation and therefore undermine the
existing parsimonious thesis. Some of our arguments
are empirically tested with aggregate district-level data
corresponding to the ten general elections held to
date.