¿Para qué sirven las campañas electorales?

Los efectos de la campaña electoral española de 1993

Abstract

This paper looks into the effects that the 1993 election campaign in Spain had on the conduct
of the electorate, and follows the old assumptions used by Lazarsfeld and his Columbia
group, as well as those used by his successors. A panel data survey was used for this, as were the
measurements taken before and after the elections. There were two main targets. Firstly,
and using the activation model, to examine whether the individual vote was influenced by the
election campaign or whether it had already been decided beforehand by political inclinations
held before the campaign began and was stimulated during the campaign itself. Secondly, to
analyse the specific effects the campaign had on voting decisions (activation, reinforcement and
conversion), besides an interpretation of why undecided voters were undecided, and what may
have changed their minds to move in the direction of the PSOE (the Spanish Socialist Party).
This article demonstrates that the conclusions reached by the work done by Lazarsfeld and his
team are certainly true in the case of Spain: the political tendencies shown by all individuals
when electoral campaigns begin are able to predict, to a large extent, what their final vote will
be. As a result, the effect of the electoral campaign is limited. The specific effects of the electoral
campaign carried out in 1993 are as follows: the influence of those who had voting preferences
which were in line with political predisposition was reinforced, and those who were undecided
were forced into making a decision (activation).